The Role of Luck in Career Success – And How to Increase it

Feb 15

I’ve always been part fascinated and part envious of the people who seem to cruise through their careers, advancing from one attractive role to the next, seemingly struck by a series of “lucky breaks” that come out of nowhere.

I’m certain you know a few too.

I've also felt the frustration of watching less capable people advance into high-profile roles, assuming they were simply luckier than I - as if luck were a fixed trait they carried. I'm not proud of it, but I suspect you've felt it too.

What I've since learned is that luck, at least in careers, works differently. It's not all purely random. Luck comes in many flavours, some of which you can actually cultivate.

This awareness has changed how I think about career growth and midlife transitions.

Luck matters more than we like to admit

Randomness plays a large role in who ends up at the very top. In studies comparing talent, effort, and luck, even highly talented individuals are often overtaken by moderately talented people who experienced more fortunate events.

It’s well documented that success is far from purely meritocratic. People and organisations tend to overestimate their skills and underestimate their luck.

Research also shows that most professionals acknowledge luck has played a significant role in shaping their careers, often through seemingly chance events with substantial impact.

What’s also worth noting is that luck isn't evenly distributed. People born into different circumstances - family, gender, race - have different "baseline luck." Roughly half of the variance in income worldwide is explained solely by country of residence.

In a sense, all this is comforting. It relaxes the link between individual success and ability. If we don’t achieve everything we strive for, it may not be due to lack of ability or insufficient striving. We may simply be lacking a bit of luck.

But if baseline luck explains most outcomes, why bother?

Because you're operating within a cohort of people with similar starting positions. The variance within that group, who flourishes, who stagnates, can be significant.

Career luck can be cultivated

Pure luck itself cannot be manufactured, but we aren’t helpless passengers either.

In the context of our careers, not everything that looks like random chance is. What seems like luck is often the result of creating the right conditions for positive opportunities.

“Lucky breaks” may not happen randomly to just anyone.

The people who appear "lucky" in their careers are typically positioned where lightning is most likely to strike. And then stay there long enough for it to happen.

Talent and effort still matter, of course, but they do not guarantee positive outcomes without exposure to favourable circumstances. And importantly, individuals can influence their circumstances and the likelihood that opportunities find them.

The career luck formula

Some of you will tell me that what I’m describing is closer to serendipity than luck. That’s fair.

I think of luck in this context as the probability of encountering serendipitous opportunities - coupled with the ability to recognise, interpret, and act on them.

Jason Roberts coined the concept of "luck surface area": how well you've positioned yourself to spot and catch lucky breaks when they flow by. Building on this, I've found it helpful to think about career luck as four multiplying factors:

Luck = Breadth × Exposure × Openness × Persistence

Breadth is what you do and how well you do it. Developing diverse skills, reading widely outside your field, experimenting with new approaches, and creating something. Think of it as casting multiple fishing lines rather than one - each new competence creates another pathway for opportunity to find you.
Exposure multiplies your breadth by connecting it to others. Publishing your thoughts, reactivating distant connections, contributing to something outside your day job, and being part of communities around things that interest you. You may be brilliant, but if only a few people know it, it doesn't matter. Luck is a volume game.
Openness is being awake to possibility, even when it arrives in unexpected packaging. It’s cultivating curiosity, taking calculated risks, leaning into things that seem interesting even when you can't see where they're pointing. Without openness, potential luck passes unnoticed.
Persistence is where most people leak luck. You can expand your surface area and position yourself well, but results tend to show up later than desired. We easily misread the situation. "No results yet" feels identical to "wrong strategy." So we give up or change direction, often just before the compound effect would have kicked in. Staying in the game long enough for luck to strike requires tolerating a period where you can't tell if you're patient or on the wrong path.

Practical ways to increase your luck

The formula is a thinking tool, not a prescription - more like an orientation, a subtle voice at the back of my mind.

It might feel abstract, and expanding my “luck surface area” isn’t a goal in itself, but it’s helping me become a little more deliberate about how I prioritise my time and the choices I make.

Why not try to get a little luckier if you can?

Assuming you've already had enough baseline luck to be in the game at all, here are some concrete ways to put it into practice:

1. Become a creator and a student

That's what I'm doing with my newsletters - writing forces me to learn, connects me to new people, and has already opened doors I didn't expect. The principle is simple: create something that stretches you. It could be a side project, a skill adjacent to your expertise, or a challenge at work outside your home turf.

There are hundreds of ways to expand your breadth.

2. Reinvigorate your distant connections

The biggest career opportunities rarely come from your closest network. Research consistently shows they come from "weak ties": acquaintances, former colleagues, distant connections who move in different circles. These people connect you to entirely different networks, information, and possibilities.

Reinvigorate relationships on the periphery of your network. That’s where new opportunities often arise.

My return to corporate life after five years of entrepreneurship came from a former client who remembered my work.

3. Make yourself visible

This is something I've been allergic to for most of my career. It doesn’t feel natural to me. Until I started this newsletter, I'd made fewer than five social media posts. But whether I like it or not, making yourself visible does make sense if you want to increase your “surface area”.

I've seen what sharing in public can do. One midlifer in my network landed her dream sales role after a hiring manager stumbled upon her LinkedIn article. It had 63 views.

The point isn't to post for its own sake. And posting is just one of numerous ways to become more visible.

A friend who’s a corporate executive recently joined a startup investment community. To learn new skills and contribute, but also to gain exposure to a different crowd.

In midlife, many feel a pull to create, teach, and contribute beyond themselves. What and how you share matters less than the act of sharing - which is fulfilling in itself, andhas the added benefit of expandingyour “luck surface area”.

4. Take calculated risks

Most of us avoid risks because we overestimate the downside and underestimate our resilience.

But in midlife, we still have several years, maybe decades, left in our working lives. Plenty of time to course-correct if necessary and to reap the benefits of continual small-scale stretching beyond our comfort zone.

Taking calculated risks tends to bring new experiences, learning, and perspectives. It exposes us to new environments and people, which increases the likelihood that luck will strike.

Stepping outside our comfort zone is a muscle we can train. With every stretch, we build resilience, appetite, and the ability to function in uncertainty.

As a side benefit, we also minimise later regret.

In midlife, most careers eventually plateau. The question is whether you've positioned yourself to catch the next opportunity when it shows up. Some of your peers likely have.

So the next time you envy someone who seems consistently lucky, ask yourself whether it’s purely random - or whether they've just been standing in the right place long enough for lightning to strike.